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Why Some Mideast Reserves Won't Help

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/reserveillusion.htm

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I was told about a Middle East field yesterday which perfectly well illustrates why people should be very wary of trusting large reserve numbers in the Middle East.  I will not name the field (it is somewhere from Iran to Egypt, but the numbers, slightly altered, that come with this field illustrate quite well why reserves are not important to the Hubbert Peak issue.

This field has fantastic reserves. It has 60 billion barrels in place with probably 20% of that being technically and economically recoverable.  Thus, this thing has 12 billion barrels--about the size of Prudhoe Bay.  Today it produces 150,000 barrels of oil per day.  That sounds like a lot of oil but the problem is that at that rate, which is that rate for a variety of technical reasons, it will require 219 years or so to drain the field of its reserves!   Exactly how is that going to help those of us alive today who are facing Hubbert's peak within the next few years?  

From the perspective of my life span, these are not reserves.  They are a wish and a hope.  In 70 years, 3.2 billion barrels will be produced. That is what the relevant reserves are to those of us alive today. 

So, the next time you hear these fantastic reserve numbers  coming out of the Middle East, ask yourself how long will it take to get that oil out of the ground. 

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