The archaeological and fossil record is very spotty. And this is especially true when one is at the time period close to when either a technology is invented or when a new species/genus arises. The reason for this spottiness is that just after a new invention or new species arises, they are localized in a tiny region and they are very few in number. Only when the technology or species becomes widespread and numerous do we have a continuous archaeological/paleontological record of the species/technology. To find the earliest example of a given species, one must know where to look, or be lucky enough to look in the right place by accident. 

Secondly, when a species is rare, it is unlikely that they will meet a death which will fossilize them. Only when a species becomes widespread will it be likely that a local flood will bury the creature in a fashion consistent with preservation.  

Given these facts, it is not unreasonable to know that the time of earliest example of any species is simply not the time when the species arose. The species arose at some earlier time. The earliest find of a species is just that--the earliest find. Probabilistically, it has been shown that one can expect the time of origin of a species to be 1.3 times the age of the earliest specimen. 

I ran into the following in Colin Tudge's book which concerns what kind of gap you can expect between the actual speciation event and the first appearance of that species in the fossil record.

       "Logic dictates, too, that the oldest known fossils cannot possibly be the  oldest representatives of their kind.  Fossilization is a rare event, after all; and when animals first appear, they are rare.  The earliest fossil bones are therefore likely to date from a time when their erstwhile owners were already common.  Logic similarly dictates that if an animal is particularly unlikely to form fossils--as primates seem to be--then paleontologists are particularly unlikely to find the very earliest types.  In fact, this logic can be translated into a mathematical formula (see Robert D. Martin, ""Primate Origins: Plugging  the Gaps,"" Nature, May 20, 1993, pp 223-234).  The fewer fossils there are  (relative to the calculated number of extinct species), the older the group is  liable to be, relative to the number of fossils found."" ~ Colin Tudge, The Time  Before History, (New York: Scribner, 1996), p. 172

 The article that Tudge cites,  presents a statistical study in which a model phylogenetic tree is designed and 3% of the species in the full model end up as  fossils (this is consistent with fossil data)  The phylogenetic model begins at  16 million years ago.  But due to the incomplete sampling (i.e. fossilization) the earliest example of the model appears around 11 myr.  This of course underestimates the time of origin for the phylogeny by 5 million years. This is   a 30% underestimate in time for the origin of the model.

So when we find H. erectus being widespread at a little under 2 million years, we can be very confident that he existed earlier.  How much earlier?  We don't know but the earliest member of the genus Homo is dated at 2.3 myr  (AL-666) Even  a 30% underestimate moves the origin of our genus 3.3 Myr. And we must remember that there is a possibility that the underestimate is bigger as is obvious in some of the cases I show below.

The  earliest fossil H. erectus is extremely unlikely to be  the very first H. erectus that ever existed on earth. H. erectus or something not to much unlike him MUST have existed prior to 2 million years. First, H. erectus appears all over the  place (Java, Georgia and Africa between 1.6-1.8 million years ago. Migration from the original homeland would take some time. Secondly, often the earliest examples of any item in the fossil record is eventually replaced by an even earlier example, but there is a big gap in time between the first and second occurrence.  In 1958 the oldest H. erectus was dated at 500 kyr at Beijing and Java.  Then in the 60s H. erectus was pushed back to 1.5 million years with almost no evidence of his existence over the intervening million years.  Since then many discoveries have filled in the gap.

The data below shows the gaps between the first and second examples of various items in the fossil and archeological record. Each entry comes from the scientific announcement of a new 'oldest' specimen. The previous 'oldest' specimen now becomes the second oldest specimen and the time in between these two specimens become the reported gap.  The interesting thing about these gaps is that there is absolutely no evidence that the species/item/technology existed during the gap period.  Indeed, if it weren't for the new discovery, there would be no evidence that the species/item/technology existed prior to the now second oldest specimen.  

Here is the data.  As you look at this, realize that in my views, I am only looking for a 3.5 million year gap between when I claim the flood is and the earliest evidence of H. erectus. [kyr=thousand years;myr=million years; Gyr= billion years]

species/item/technology  Oldest    2nd oldest        gap       ref.

Mayan Ball courts         3.4 kyr    2.9 kyr         .5  kyr   47
Chess in Europe           1.4 kyr     .9 kyr         .5  kyr   11
Irish Elk (youngest two) 10.6 kyr    9.2 kyr        1.4  kyr   14
Maya Farming              4.5 kyr    3.0 kyr        1.5  kyr    1
wine                      5.2 kyr    3.2 kyr        2.0  kyr    3
Maize cultivation         7.7 kyr    5.2 kyr        2.5  kyr    8
Peruvian carving of God     4 kyr      1 kyr        3    kyr   12
Moon map                    5 kyr     .5 kyr        4.5  kyr    9
New World Farming          10 kyr      5 kyr        5    kyr    8
cotton                      7 kyr      2 kyr        5    kyr   10
glue                     14.7 kyr    8.5 kyr        6.2  kyr    6
pet cats                  9.5 kyr    3.0 kyr        6.5  kyr   58
Use of Bitumen             40 kyr     10 kyr       30    kyr    7
use of bitumen            40  kyr    8.2 kyr        31.8 kyr    2 
Foraminifera Ammodiscus   510 myr    440 myr        70   myr   13
stone tools               2.6 Myr    2.3 Myr       200   kyr    4
humans & tools together   2.3 Myr    1.8 Myr       500   kyr    5

Cetaceans                53.5 Myr     50 Myr         3.5 Myr   51
bisexual plants           465 Myr    460 Myr           5 Myr   42
Elephantine animals        60 Myr     52 Myr           8 Myr   38
birds                     147 Myr    139 Myr           8 Myr   27
Angiosperms               140 Myr    130 Myr          10 Myr   52
Earliest vertebrate       530 Myr    520 Myr          10 Myr   39
Marine turtles            110 Myr    100 Myr          10 Myr   46
Forest fire charcoal      360 Myr    350 Myr          10 Myr   20
Dinosaurs                 240 Myr    228 Myr          12 Myr   24
Grasses                    55 Myr     37 Myr          18 Myr   45
Tetrapods                 365 Myr    355 Myr          20 Myr   16
Thrips                    230 Myr    210 Myr          20 Myr   35
Moths                     230 Myr    210 Myr          20 Myr   35
Diptera (butterflies)     250 Myr    230 Myr          20 Myr   35
Coleoptera                250 Myr    230 Myr          20 Myr   35
Tyrannosaurus             125 Myr    105 Myr          20 Myr   36
Lorises                    40 Myr     20 MYr          22 Myr   21
tribosphenic mammals      167 Myr    143 Myr          25 Myr   53
Australian songbirds       55 Myr     30 Myr          25 Myr   28
Tarsiers                   55 Myr     25 Myr          30 Myr   25
Sponges                   580 Myr    549 Myr          31 Myr   44
Myriapods                 410 Myr    375 Myr          35 Myr   49
Pollen eaters             150 Myr    110 Myr          40 Myr   43
Ants                       92 Myr     52 Myr          40 Myr   19
Ticks                      90 Myr     40 Myr          50 Myr   18
Chordate                  530 Myr    480 Myr          50 Myr   55
Thelodont fish            455 Myr    430 Myr          50 Myr   32
Vascular plants           470 Myr    420 Myr          50 Myr   33
Spiders                   295 Myr    240 Myr          55 Myr   34
Mycorrhizal fungi         460 Myr    400 Myr          60 Myr   17
therizinosaur             200 Myr    140 Myr          60 Myr   50
African turtles           205 Myr    145 Myr          60 Myr   26
Gilled mushrooms           94 Myr     30 Myr          64 Myr   30
Crawfish                  280 Myr    215 Myr          65 Myr   48
Birds on Madagascar        65 Myr     10 Kyr          65 Myr   37
mammalian flight          125 Myr     51 Myr          70 Myr   59
spider silk               120 Myr     40 Myr          80 Myr   22
Land-Plant interactions   412 Myr    322 Myr          90 Myr   29
Caecilians                180 Myr     80 Myr         100 Myr   57
Snails                    300 Myr    140 Myr         160 Myr   40
Tardigrades               510 Myr    310 Myr         200 Myr   15
Nucha sponges             510 Myr    230 Myr         280 Myr   54
Life on land              1.2 Gyr    800 Myr         400 Myr   23
deep-sea vent community   420 Myr     10 kyr         420 Myr   41
crustal subduction          2 Gyr    1.1 Gyr         900 Myr   31
Eukaryotes                2.7 Gyr    1.7 Gyr        1000 Myr   56

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