North Korean Agriculture and the Lack of Oil

Glenn R. Morton

My Blog on Global Warming issues http://themigrantmind.blogspot.com/

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/ag-korea.htm

There is a fascinating article on the web concerning the collapse of the North Korean economy which touches on the importance of oil. The article can be found at: http://www.net-ibaraki.ne.jp/aboys/pfe/dprkfc.htm.

During the period after the Korean war, North Korea had developed a typical modern farming system which required the use of machinery and the extensive dependence upon fertilizer (made from petroleum). After the fall of the Soviet Union, China, not needing to compete with the USSR any longer, announced that all trade with North Korea would be settled in hard currency. No more aid.   This brought on an economic collapse in the North. No longer were they able to get money to purchase oil and supplies for their farm machinery. Predictably farming began to go into a spiral. Fuel became scarce so that the farm machinery couldn't run.   By 1998, 80% of the motorized farm implement capacity of the Democratic Peoples Republic of North Korea (DPRK) was idled. In an attempt to sustain agriculture, Koreans engaged in agriculture rose from 25% of the population to 36% over the years after the Chinese cut off.

But much of this was futile.   The land had been drained of nutrients and if sufficient yields were to be maintained fertilizer needed to be applied on a massive scale.   It is estimated that North Korea's fertilizer requirements are 700,000 metric tons which is what they manufactured in 1989.   By 1998 they were only able to manufacture 18% of their need.   Crop yields plummeted over this period by 60%.   Thus causing severe famine throughout the land. It is estimated that without an input of chemical fertilizers (meaning hydrocarbon based energy input), there is little way that the food production can increase.   The population of North Korea will decline until it reaches the level present crop yields can sustain.

The cautionary tale here is that a world without oil is a really ugly place.

Glenn Morton

July 28,2001